Sports betting strategies
The Three Match Theory is a strategy based on the analysis of the main outcomes of a soccer match based on the last three games:
- 3 extreme home meetings;
- 3 past away fights of guests;
- 3 previous face-to-face confrontations.
This approach is explained by the fact that it is the results of the three recent games that make it possible to obtain the most objective and reliable data for making a forecast.
For certain results, the team is awarded points.
The home team gets one point for a draw, and two points for a win. The difference in the score is also added, where the advantage of one goal is one point.
For example, the hosts were stronger 5: 3. They receive two points for their winnings and two points for the difference in the score. Total – four points.
The points for the guest team are calculated in the same way.
In the last three personal meetings, three points are awarded for a victory, and zero for a draw and a loss.
- What to bet on?
What to bet on?
All points are summed up and give an idea of the superiority of one of the rivals:
- If the difference in points is more than 13, then you can expect a confident victory for the team;
- When the difference is about 7 points, then the team is likely to win, but with an insignificant difference in the score;
- Provided that the difference is about 4 points, it is advisable to consider a double chance (1X, X2);
- If the difference is zero, it is optimal to consider a draw, and if the difference is minimal, then the odds are +1 for the team, which is slightly inferior in points.
Three rules of the strategy:
- Exclude fights with an obvious favorite and an outsider;
- Do not analyze the match if the opponents meet for the first time in two years;
- Skip meetings on neutral ground.
The theory is simple and straightforward, but let’s take a look at the match as an example.
Championship of Belarus, “Vitebsk” – “Dynamo” Minsk.
The last fights of the owners in their native walls:
- 0: 0 (one point);
- 0: 2 (zero points);
- 1: 0 (two points + one for the difference in the account).
Previous away games:
- 2: 1 (zero points);
- 1: 3 (two points + two for the difference in the score);
- 1: 0 (zero points).
The results of three recent games between clubs:
- 0: 2 in favor of Vitebsk (three points);
- 1: 3 in favor of Dynamo (three points);
- 0: 0 (zero points).
- Vitebsk – 7 points;
- Dynamo – 7 points.
The score is 7: 7. According to the strategy, a draw or a +1 handicap should be considered in favor of any team.
The theory of three matches has a right to life, however, in the form in which it is presented, the effectiveness of the strategy will be minimal. The fact is that the system takes into account only the results of the teams.
Perhaps one club has recently played with weak opponents, while the other has played with the leaders. In this case, the calculations will not be able to reflect the objective alignment of forces, even approximately.
Also, many other important factors are not taken into account – the level of motivation and personnel problems (injuries, disqualifications).
The bottom line is that it is advisable to use the theory of three matches as an auxiliary rather than an independent tool. Carefully consider the recent fights of opponents, but consider not only the number of goals scored, but also other factors.