Sports betting strategies
On the world wide web, you can find a huge number of tools that supposedly provide incredible help in finding promising sports betting. Most of them in reality do not provide any effective help; rather, on the contrary, they lead the bettor away from qualitative analysis, which leads to a loss.
But, there are several really useful tools in betting, and theories based on them. These include the rating of Massey. We will try to understand what it is in the review. Let's start with theory.
- How are football championships going?
- The essence of the Massey rating
- How to use Massey's rating in betting?
- Benefits of the Massey rating
How are football championships going?
Before the start of any championship, a specially developed program randomly generates a calendar. This is done so that representatives of the clubs could not build the most convenient calendar for themselves in various gray ways. Such a random order of the formation of the calendar often leads to two contradictory points:
- One club has only difficult opponents for several matches in a row;
- The second club at the same time comes across easy opponents.
What does this lead to if both clubs have the same playing potential and demonstrate the same level of play? Obviously, to the same set of points and a strong gap when positioned in the standings.
How do many fans of the Russian championship remember the start of the RPL in the 2019-2020 season? The fact that the newcomer of the tower at the very beginning of the season got a frankly difficult calendar.
Photo source: 24score.pro
In the first five rounds, Sochi, the newcomer to the HSE, got four tops at once and a strong middle peasant in the face of Ufa. Such a calendar led to the club scoring only two points in five starting rounds.
As a result, Sochi took the penultimate place, but the club had no other way.
When in the next six rounds the rivals got five middle peasants and one top in the face of Lokomotiv, Sochi managed to score 10 points, which allowed them to rise to 10th place.
Now it is worth paying attention to where after the first five rounds the Tula Arsenal was located. In fifth place with 10 points. But after 11 played rounds, the club dropped to 8th place, gaining only four points over the next six rounds. And here it is worth looking at how and with whom Arsenal played.
The situation is the opposite in comparison with Sochi: at first, easy and relatively equal rivals were won, where the club was actively gaining points, then the tops were often won, which led to a loss of points.
All this says one thing – the calendar directly affects the results of the team and its current position in the standings. This must be taken into account when analyzing the selected football match. In betting, there is such a concept as under-selected points and over-selected points, which is associated with the former with a heavy calendar, and with the latter with an easy one. In this case, in the first five rounds, Sochi lost their points, and Arsenal went over them.
The essence of the Massey rating
Your specified factors have always been taken into account by experienced bettors when analyzing team sports. But one of them, in the person of the American Kenneth Massey, decided to systematize all this, to develop a special program that works according to a certain algorithm, which takes into account a huge list of nuances, but the main emphasis is on the following things:
- What level of opponents the team had to play with, based on their potential and current level of play;
- What potential does the club have and what level of play did it demonstrate at the time of meeting with each opponent?
We will not study in detail by what specific algorithm the developed program works, the main thing is that it works competently and accurately displays a certain type of useful data. What is this data?
How to use Massey's rating in betting?
Based on the Italian Serie A, let's look at how the American designs actually work.
This is how the Serie A standings for the 2019-2020 season look like, where Juventus leads, followed by Lazio, then Inter and Atalanta. And now it's worth looking at what Massey's program shows.
Photo source: masseyratings.com
According to this rating, it is clear that Atalanta is showing the most powerful football today, being in the first place (this is shown by the column highlighted in green and denoted as “Rat” – Rating). But according to the current real standings, this club is only in 4th place. The real leader, Juventus, is only in second place in Massey.
There are enough additional indicators in the presented table, but here it is worth highlighting two more really useful ones:
- Off (Offense) – characterizes the current attack strength;
- Def (Defense) – characterizes the current strength of the defense.
All other indicators characterize what to expect from the team in the future, but all this is not interesting for an experienced bettor for one reason. For example, “Atalanta” in the next match is losing 2-3 of its founding players due to injuries and disqualifications, because of this, all the predictions of the future of this team do not correspond to reality. When analyzing the selected match, it is worth carefully studying the three indicated indicators.
There is another useful tool in Massey's program – how likely a selected pair of opponents can win.
Such a powerful move by Atalanta in the last rounds forced the studied program to make this club the current leader of the Italian championship, where it is worth paying attention to which opponents the team will have to play with in the future. And these probabilities were determined by the considered program in them.
Photo source: masseyratings.com
The probability of Atalanta winning in the closest match with Sampdoria is 72%. But in the match with Juventus – 32%, Brescia – 80%. It makes no sense to look at the probabilities for the next matches, there the club may fall into a difficult game crisis or show even brighter football.
The program also shows the approximate score the matches can end with. It demonstrates that Atalanta will beat Sampdoria 3: 1, while a 2: 2 draw will be recorded with Juventus. But you should not rely heavily on such indicators, they hide too much unpredictability.
Benefits of the Massey rating
This is a really useful tool, but it is worth considering the indicators that characterize the club for the next 1-2 games. When choosing a match for analysis, it is worth looking at what positions they occupy in Massey's rating. If there are strong discrepancies with their current location in the standings, you should definitely figure this out. And special attention should be paid to confrontations of this nature.
Why did the Spanish championship match Athletic Bilbao – Sevilla, where the hosts are an outsider of the meeting, attracted attention? First, take a look at the current standings.
Athletic Bilbao are in 9th position and Sevilla in fourth. Now it's curious to see how the teams rank in Massey's rankings.
Photo source: masseyratings.com
In the studied ranking, Sevilla is still in 4th place, but Athletic Bilbao is in 6th. At the moment, the Basques are showing the football of the sixth team of the championship. The ideal situation would be if Sevilla in the rating of Massey was below its 4th place in the real standings, for example, in 5th place.
It turns out that this will be a meeting of two approximately equal rivals, where the bookmakers made Athletic Bilbao, which is not much inferior at the time of the game of Sevilla in terms of the level of play, an outsider of the confrontation. This allows you to bet at least simply not to lose to Athletic Bilbao at a clearly overestimated odds. But before doing this, the bettor must carry out another important analysis – to study the situation around both clubs:
- Whether in the last match, or in training before the game under study, the fundamental players were injured;
- Whether the founding players received red or yellow cards in the last round, which led to their disqualification for the next game;
- Unexpected illness of football players;
- The situation within the team.
Such an analysis will make it possible to understand in what state both clubs will approach the match. Seeing that Athletic Bilbao showcases football significantly stronger than the actual standings reflect, many bettors can play on the side of the Basques in their match with Sevilla. But suddenly a number of fundamental players will not be able to play in this confrontation, which will greatly weaken the game of Athletic Bilbao. In such a situation, it is better not to bet on the Basques.
Massey's rating allows the bettor to look for matches where a promising bet can be made. Having found such a game, the user will have to carry out additional analysis. All this will really allow you to make frequent winning bets and eventually start going out into a good plus at a distance.