Statistics based soccer betting

Sports betting strategies

Defined Score is a strategy for betting on the correct score in soccer. The methodology relies solely on statistics. It is enough to study the results of fights in different tournaments and select suitable opponents to use the system.

The essence of the strategy

Using the statistics service, we select the tournament in which a certain score was most often encountered in the three previous seasons.

For example, in the Spanish Segunda (Second Division), the most popular total is 1: 1 (16%, 16% and 14% in the seasons 2019/2020, 2018/2019 and 2017/2018, respectively).

Now there is a lot of work to be done manually – to identify the clubs that most often played with the specified score based on the results of the past three championships. If you know services that provide such information – share in the comments.

In our case, this is Alcorcon (18% of meetings with a 1: 1 score).

The next step is to set the maximum break between a draw 1: 1. Alcorcon has 14 fights.

Now you need to find out the average ratio on the account 1: 1 – 6.

Bet 1: 1 for a fixed amount until the potential winnings are less than the size of the trades. After that, start a moderate catch-up.

Calculate your bankroll with a maximum loss streak of 14 events. In our example, we got the following table.

Step Bet amount, rub. Total loss, rub. Net profit, RUB
# 1 100 100 500
# 2 100 200 400
No. 3 100 300 300
No. 4 100 400 200
No. 5 100 500 100
# 6 200 700 500
# 7 200 900 300
No. 8 200 1 100 100
No. 9 300 1,400 400
No. 10 300 1,700 100
No. 11 400 2 100 300
No. 12 500 2 600 400
No. 13 600 3200 400
No. 14 700 3900 300
No. 15 900 4800 600

With an initial rate of 100 rubles, the balance must be 4,800 rubles in order to withstand 14 failures in a row and complete the 15th deal. At any step, the profit ranges from 100 to 600 rubles.


In the example above, the worst-case scenario is considered. On average, you will win every 4-8 matches.

The calculation was made at quotes of 6. In reality, they can be either slightly lower or noticeably higher.

It is better not to consider strategies that are based only on statistical indicators, but in this case you can make an exception and try to test the methodology, but carefully. Dogon is always a risk. An unsuccessful streak can drag on, and if there is not enough money for it, then the losses will be significant.

Bet on games of the same tournament. If the team is playing in a cup or friendly, then skip the event. You can add analysis. Let's say a team in terrible shape went to visit a leader who desperately needs victory. The probability of a draw is low, so you can skip a step.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *