Value Betting strategy (overweight bets, value bets): description, features and effectiveness

Value Betting strategy (overweight bets, value bets): description, features and effectiveness Sports betting strategies

Dozens of game strategies are used in betting. But most of the pros prefer one of them – Value Betting. This theory allows you to get “extra” profit, which helps to get a profit on the distance. To successfully use the strategy, you need to know several important rules. We will devote a little time to their study.


  1. The essence of the strategy
  2. Valuy when loading
  3. Professional advice
  4. Double error in ranked tournaments
  5. Distortions in low-ranked tournaments
  6. Statistics betting
  7. Pros and cons of the strategy
  8. Summing up

The essence of the strategy

When the probability of the outcome of the event for the user is higher in comparison with what the bookmaker gives in its line – this is a value. The strategy is based on the mistake of the bookmaker's analyst. Only an experienced bettor who is well versed in the chosen sports tournament can find it. Let's consider a valuable situation with a specific example.

In the second leg of the Europa League qualification final 2021-2022, the bookmakers set a coefficient of 1.94 for Partizan's victory. Bookmaker's analysts calculated that the success rate of the owners is: 1 / 1.94 = 51.5%. In P1, the bookmaker also pledged his margin.

Bookmakers estimated the probability of P1 at about 50%. Experienced bettors analyzed the match “Partizan – Santa Clara” and realized that the probability of the hosts' victory is much higher and equal to 60%. With this parameter, the line should have a coefficient: 1/60 = 1.66. Taking into account the margin, it will be slightly higher. But this is significantly lower in comparison with the bookmaker's quotes. It turns out that there is an unreasonably high coefficient in the line. It allows you to get “extra profit” if you win the bet.

“Partizan” won – the bet was played. If the bookmaker's analysts had set the correct coefficient in the opening line, 1.66, the one who bet 1000 rubles on it would have won 660 rubles net. But P1 stood at 1.94. With a stake of 1,000 rubles, the net profit amounted to 940 rubles. The difference is 280 rubles. It is called “superfluous”. It neutralizes the bookmaker's margin and allows you to get a profit at a distance.

Valuy when loading

In betting, one can often see unjustified strong losses. This happens when a huge army of young bettors, without analysis, bets large sums on an obvious option.

In the second leg of the 2020-2021 Conference League qualifier, many users bet on the guests to win. They noticed that Feyenoord had defeated Malmö 5-0 in their home game and felt that the Dutch club would win on the road as well. This was the reason for the heavy load of P2. But experienced bettors made the opposite decision. After a major victory for the guests, there was no point in exhibiting a strong line-up in Sweden. The hosts entered the pitch with overwhelming motivation to rehabilitate themselves in the eyes of their fans. There was a high probability that the Swedish club would not lose.

The initial odds for 1X (not a loss to Malmo) – 2, corresponded to the real balance of power. When, under the influence of the load, it increased to 2.18, the coefficient became valuable. The pros bet at an unreasonably high coefficient due to the load and got an “extra” profit.

Professional advice

To search for valuable situations, you should take into account several recommendations of experienced bettors.

Double error in ranked tournaments

In the top championships, one can rarely find a bias – an office error. The best analysts are assigned to tournaments of this level. They correctly line up, possessing a large amount of insider information. But in one case, bookmaker analysts deliberately underestimate the coefficient, expecting a strong load on it – the victory of the clear favorite. Quotes initially do not correspond to the real alignment of forces: they are overstated for a win, not a loss, and a positive handicap for an outsider.

Subsequently, bettors actively upload the success of the favorite. Quotes for his victory and a positive handicap went down even more, and for the opposite variant increased. Sometimes there is such a moment when the numbers in the line for the positive handicap of the outsider strongly do not correspond to reality and you can place a promising bet on this option.

Distortions in low-ranked tournaments

Bookmaker analysts make many mistakes in poorly popular championships. For example, the 3rd football league in Norway or Sweden. Mid-level analysts are assigned to these tournaments. They sometimes miss important information or misinterpret it, not understanding the deep features of the league. But local users see this and, upon careful examination of the line, find errors.

See also: how to correctly read and disassemble a bookmaker line

Experienced bettors choose 1-2 low-rated championships and study it for a long time. This later allows you to find values and bet at an overestimated coefficient.

Bookmakers understand that they make frequent mistakes in such competitions. For this reason, a high margin is included in the coefficients. But even with average quotes, the pros who place bets using the Value Betting strategy are in a good plus at a distance.

Statistics betting

Professionals point out that they find a huge amount of distortions in statistical types of bets. For example, in football, promising areas:

  • Yellow cards;
  • Shots on target and towards the goal;
  • Live bets on fouls (if at the beginning of the match the referee recorded many violations, the total rises strongly – it is promising to bet on TM).

In other sports, there may be other types of bets, for example, in tennis, these are bets on aces.

Statistics bets refer to the smallmarket. This group also includes low-ranking tournaments.

What is a smallmarket is described in detail in a separate material.

These rates have 2 drawbacks:

  • High margin;
  • Even with a small load, the bookmaker greatly lowers the coefficient.

For these reasons, experienced bettors keep track of when the bookmaker sets a line for statistics. They study it and try to quickly place a bet

Pros and cons of the strategy

The main advantage is the neutralization of the margin. If the user bets only on quotes that fully reflect the balance of power, then each time the margin takes away part of the profit when the bet wins. Value allows you to neutralize the margin and get additional income

The main disadvantage is that only bettors with extensive experience will be able to successfully use the Value Betting strategy. Professionals know how to look for mistakes of bookmaker analysts in the line. It is difficult for young users to do this. They sometimes mistakenly believe that they have delivered

Summing up

On the world wide web, you can find many negative responses to the theory studied. This is normal. Young users who find it difficult to successfully bet on it are bad for Value Betting. Only with the advent of experience it becomes clear how and when you can find a value and get an inflated profit on it.

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