Strategy for calculating the approximate total of a football match – calculating efficiency

Sports betting strategies

Let's consider the theory of the game, which allows to roughly calculate the total of the match selected by the user. It is worth immediately paying attention to the word “about”. Many can immediately say – why such a strategy is needed if it does not make it possible to carry out an accurate calculation? But the theory must be considered, it will lead to one really useful conclusion for a successful game in betting.


  1. The essence of the strategy for calculating the total in football
  2. Action # 1
  3. Action # 2
  4. Action # 3
  5. Action # 4
  6. Action # 5
  7. What can be used in a strategy game?

The essence of the strategy for calculating the total in football

Everything is based on naked statistics, which takes into account the goals scored and conceded by the host side in all matches played at the home arena, and for the guests these parameters are taken into account in their all away meetings. All calculations take place in 5 simple steps. Let's consider them on the example of a specific match chosen at random, at the same time and see if the theory works in reality.

This is a match between two ordinary middle peasants in the English championship. On its basis, we will consider the theory.

Action # 1

This counts how many West Brom have conceded and scored in total at home. Only matches of the national championship are taken under control, European cups and cup meetings are not taken into account. West Brom have conceded 32 goals and scored 8 goals in their 12 previous home games. The sum of goals scored and conceded to the hosts must be divided by the number of home rounds played – 12.

Action # 2

It is necessary to divide the sum of goals scored and conceded by Brighton on the road by the number of away rounds. The club scored 14 goals, conceded 15. In total, 12 away rounds were played.

Action # 3

We take the highest figures from the opponents and divide by the number of matches played by them. We take 32 conceded goals from West Brom and 15 conceded goals from Brighton. Played matches – 12.

Action # 4

Similar calculations, but based on the minimum performance of the teams.

Action # 5

We summarize the results of the two previous actions and divide the total by 2.

This is the end result of all calculations carried out.

How to place bets based on the actions performed:

  • If the final result does not exceed 2.3 – we bet on “TM 2.5”;
  • 3-2.7 – no need to bet;
  • From 2.7 and higher – “TB 2.5”.

In our considered case, it turned out 2.87, so it was necessary to put it on “TB 2.5”. It remains to see how the confrontation ended.

The middle peasants scored only one goal for two. As a result, the bet was lost, the theory did not work. Such a loss does not really surprise experienced bettors who never trust bare statistics.

Pros will not calculate the approximate total with such primitive actions taken from the ceiling by one of the bettors. He obviously accidentally stumbled upon a pattern within a short period of time, they say, such calculations can predict the effectiveness of the selected match. If he tested his theory for a long time, he realized that all his calculations at a distance would not allow him to get a profit, unless incredible luck played a role.

What can be used in a strategy game?

In fact, it is worth considering the results of the first two actions: the average performance of the hosts when playing at home arena and the average total of guests when they play away. But these parameters should be taken into account in order to understand the nature of the team's play.

It can be clearly seen here that Fiorentina and Udinese are two closed home teams in the Italian championship, with a strong emphasis on tight defense. For this reason, their home matches are notable for their poor performance. This conclusion carries more useful information than the figures obtained using the last three actions of the above theory.

In the future, there are a number of important nuances to be considered that allow us to assess the estimated total of the match:

  • The current level of the teams' play;
  • Injuries and disqualifications of players: if closed teams meet, then special attention is paid to the main defenders, in the confrontation between two sharply attacking clubs – to the most productive players;
  • Motivation to fight;
  • Which rival is opposed to: if a direct competitor in the fight for medals, the European competition zone or keeping a residence permit in the tower, who has almost the same number of points in his assets, very often both coaches rely on caution and pragmatism;
  • Who was acquired during the transfer campaign: if the club acquired several sharply attacking players, you can expect a shift in emphasis on attack;
  • Changes on the coaching bridge: what style of play is preached by the newly arrived specialist;
  • Game schedule: a tired team will not be able to actively attack for a long time;
  • Weather conditions, quality of the field, etc.

There are about 10 important points helping to determine the possible performance of a match, where the average statistical indicators are one of them and carry around 10% of the benefit. It is impossible to achieve success at a distance with the help of bare numbers.

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